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Abstract Agricultural supply chains play a crucial role in supporting food security in Africa. However, high-resolution supply chain information is often not available, which hinders our ability to determine which interventions in food supply chains would most enhance food security. In this study, we develop a high-resolution supply chain model for essential staple crops in Zambia, aiming to estimate how improvements in transportation infrastructure would impact food security. Specifically, we simulate district-level monthly consumption, trade flows, and storage for maize and cassava in Zambia. We then conduct a counterfactual case study with low transportation costs, discovering that reducing transaction costs leads to higher aggregate net agricultural revenue and aggregate net expenditure. These results indicate that transportation investments are more beneficial to suppliers than to consumers, with implications for household food security in smallholder agriculture. Our study highlights the potential for infrastructure investments to improve food security. 

Abstract The food system is an important contributor to carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. The refrigerated food supply chain is an energy-intensive, nutritious and high-value part of the food system, making it particularly important to consider. In this study, we develop a novel model of cold chain food flows between counties in the United States. Specifically, we estimate truck transport via roadways of meat and prepared foodstuffs for the year 2017. We use the roadway travel distance in our model framework rather than the haversine distance between two locations to improve the estimate for long-haul freight with a temperature-controlled system. This enables us to more accurately calculate the truck fuel consumption and CO 2 emissions related to cold chain food transport. We find that the cold chain transport of meat emitted 8.4 × 10 6 t CO 2 yr −1 and that of prepared foodstuffs emitted 14.5 × 10 6 t CO 2 yr −1 , which is in line with other studies. Meat has a longer average refrigerated transport distance, resulting in higher transport CO 2 emissions per kg than processed foodstuffs. We also find that CO 2 emissions from cold chain food transport are not projected to significantly increase under the temperatures projected to occur with climate change in 2045. These county-level cold chain food flows could be used to inform infrastructure investment, supply chain decision-making and environmental footprint studies. 

Abstract Food supply chains are essential for distributing goods from production to consumption points. These complex supply chains are important for food security and availability. Recent research has developed novel methods to estimate food flows with high spatial resolution, but we do not currently understand how fine-grained food supply chains vary in time. In this study, we use an improved version of the Food Flow Model to estimate food flows (kg) between all county pairs across all food commodity groups for the years 2007, 2012, and 2017 (which requires estimating 206.3 million links). We then determine the core counties to the US food flow networks through time with a multi-criteria decision analysis technique. Our estimates of county-to-county food flows in time are freely available with this paper and could be useful for future research, policy, and decision-making.